UK Immigration Shake-Up: Degree-Level Threshold and Care Worker Visa End Raise Shortage Fears
Sweeping changes to the UK’s immigration rules, outlined in the government’s “Restoring Control over the Immigration System” White Paper released this month, aim to significantly reduce net migration and prioritize higher-skilled workers. However, these reforms, including a raised skill threshold for work visas and the end of overseas recruitment for care workers, have ignited concerns about potential labor shortages across vital sectors.
The new policy framework marks a significant shift, intending to reverse what the government describes as an unsustainable broadening of eligibility for work visas in recent years. Key changes with implications for employers and the labor market include:
- Higher Skills Threshold: The minimum skill level for the Skilled Worker visa route will revert from RQF Level 3 (A-level equivalent) to RQF Level 6, which is broadly equivalent to a bachelor’s degree. This change is projected to render approximately 180 occupations currently eligible for sponsorship as ineligible for new applicants from overseas. Roles in care, catering, customer service, warehousing, and lower-level construction trades are likely to be significantly affected. Existing Skilled Worker visa holders in sub-degree level roles will be protected and allowed to extend their stay, creating a two-tiered system.
- End of Overseas Social Care Recruitment: A contentious element of the reforms is the closure of the Health and Care Worker visa route to new overseas recruits for adult social care roles. The government argues that shortages in this sector are due to poor pay and working conditions, necessitating a focus on domestic recruitment and improved terms. Existing care workers in the UK will still be able to extend their visas and switch employers within the sector until 2028.
- Abolition of the Immigration Salary List (ISL): The ISL, which allowed employers to pay lower salaries for jobs facing national shortages, is being abolished. It will be replaced by a new, temporary Shortage List with stricter, time-limited, and conditional arrangements for sponsoring migrant workers in roles below RQF Level 6. Access to this list will require sector-specific workforce strategies and approval from the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC).
- Increased English Language Requirements: The English language proficiency requirement for Skilled Worker visa applicants and their adult dependants will rise from CEFR Level B1 to B2.
- Longer Route to Settlement: The standard qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) for work visa holders will double from five to ten years, emphasizing a longer-term contribution to the UK.
Rationale and Potential Consequences
The government’s rationale is to reduce reliance on international labor, address high net migration figures, and incentivize investment in the domestic workforce through training and better employment conditions. They believe that some sectors have become overly dependent on “cheap immigrant labor.”
However, concerns are mounting about the potential for these changes to exacerbate existing labor shortages:
- Social Care Crisis: The decision to halt overseas recruitment for social care has been met with strong criticism from sector bodies, who describe international recruitment as a “lifeline.” With tens of thousands of vacancies already, ending this route without a clear and adequately funded domestic recruitment strategy could severely impact the provision of essential care services.
- Impact on Other Sectors: Raising the skill threshold could significantly affect sectors like hospitality, retail, construction, and manufacturing, which have historically relied on overseas workers for roles that may not meet the new degree-level requirement. While a temporary Shortage List is planned, its scope and effectiveness in addressing these widespread needs remain uncertain.
- Attracting Top Talent: Increased salary thresholds and stricter English language requirements for dependants could make the UK less attractive to highly skilled workers in competitive global markets like the digital and technology sectors.
- Economic Disruption: Businesses fear that restricted access to overseas labor could hinder growth, delay projects, and increase costs, potentially impacting the wider economy.
The Temporary Shortage List: A Key Unknown
The success of the government’s plan in avoiding significant labor shortages hinges on the details and implementation of the Temporary Shortage List. The MAC will play a crucial role in advising on which occupations will be included, for how long, and under what conditions. Employers in affected sectors are eagerly awaiting further information on this mechanism.
Looking Ahead
The coming months will be critical in understanding the real-world impact of these immigration rule changes. While the government aims to reshape the UK’s approach to immigration and prioritize domestic labor, the potential for unintended consequences, particularly in the form of widespread labor shortages, remains a significant challenge. The effectiveness of domestic training initiatives and the practicality of the new Temporary Shortage List will be key determinants of the UK’s ability to navigate this new immigration landscape without causing significant economic disruption and impacting essential services.
